New love in the Russian-Ukrainian war
For reasons that we will not elaborate here, the Russian aggression in Ukraine seems to have reached a dead end. The only way forward from this point, is for both sides to step back. Looking at the most likely scenario for crypto space, post this mindless war. The Russian authorities have often expressed displeasure at crypto transactions, they never ever had nice words for Bitcoin. The US sanctions coupled by action from some EU nations, would undoubtedly bite into the Russian economy. While Putin could stubbornly go on fighting, he could not ignore the simmering discontent within his own country. Somewhere in this chaos was the clear possibility, of Russia attempting to circumvent sanctions by, using Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a mode of payment. Official and unofficial financial aid poured into Ukraine, this is not expected to slowdown in the next couple of weeks. Cryptocurrency moved around to help Ukraine fight the Russian aggression. Ukraine had a neutral stand on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, even before the war. Expecting to see a clearly favorable crypto stand, from the Ukraine government after the war. Now a quick analysis of what might happen post the war. Ukraine will need to repair and develop, expect liquidation of its crypto holdings. By the way, I also expect the US and its allies to move substantial funds to Ukraine – in the name of development and reconstruction. I would personally approve of any such move. In the medium and long term, Ukraine would be a more crypto friendly nation. Expect the crypto industry, to make many inroads into that country. Coming to Russia – the war proved how unpredictable Putin could be. It also proved that even Putin, is not above making mistakes and miscalculations! Another thing that became crystal clear is that, Putin hates America and few of America’s good friends! I would not be surprised if Russia goes full steam ahead and attempts, to undermine global crypto markets. In the short term this could mean, a big Bitcoin dump. I say short term because crypto markets are now quite robust and will, recover in the medium to long term. Let’s not forget that there are many more actively trading cryptocurrencies today, BTC is no longer the bottom line! Things could change quickly so we will have to wait and watch. One thing for certain, war never really benefitted anyone. Retaining any temporary gains made through war, could require disproportionately high resources!!!